Risk-Based Procurement Controls and Cost Efficiency in Public Defense Purchasing: Evidence from Ukraine
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18525743Keywords:
public procurement, defense purchasing, risk-based controls, price dispersion, cost efficiency, governance, Ukraine, contract microdataAbstract
Emergency defence procurement increases exposure to price dispersion, supplier opportunism, and documentation gaps, especially when purchases must balance speed with accountability. This study tests whether risk-based procurement controls, implemented through structured risk indicators and enhanced screening, are associated with improved cost efficiency and reduced price dispersion in comparable defence-related purchases in Ukraine. Using contract-level procurement microdata and category-specific unit-cost measures, the analysis compares contracts subject to risk-based controls with otherwise similar contracts processed under standard procedures. The empirical design combines exact and propensity-score matching on procurement category, contract value, delivery horizon, contracting authority characteristics, and supplier history, and then estimates post-matching differences in (i) (i) log unit prices, (ii) dispersion metrics within standardised categories (interquartile range and median absolute deviation), and (iii) outlier frequency based on pre-specified red-flag rules. Robustness checks vary matching algorithms, trimming rules, dispersion definitions, and subsamples defined by urgency and market concentration. The paper reports auditable effect estimates and provides governance recommendations focused on transparency, traceable documentation, and risk-calibrated controls that preserve operational timelines.
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